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(May 09, 2001) Throughout the 19th and 20th Centuries, a recession was caused by an inventory build up. In a manufacturing economy, when you have too much stuff built, you don't need workers to build it for a while. A recession was the time during which the inventory was sold off.

Some were worse than others.

When it takes too long to sell off the old inventory, people get scared (dropping consumer confidence). The fear results in decreased demand. The inventory is sold off more slowly. The recession "deepens".

The key to understanding the prosperity of the 90s is that we "fixed" the inventory problem. With its emphasis on process re-engineering and Just In Time inventory, the American economy essentially established a single inventory control system. It was completed during the last real recession (1991). As a result, all american Companies share a (somewhat grumpy) single inventory system. Key suppliers manage inventory and requirements in their accounts throughout the economy.

We got 10 very successful years out of this new distributed system before the current "bump". Given that manufacturing is a small component of the economy these days (and an inventory problem is even less significant than it was 10 years ago), what happened?

We think it was the first real demonstration that the Human Capital Inventory System is in need of completion. (For that matter, it's in need of a beginning.) After all, in the worst employment news, 235,000 or so jobs were lost in the economy. In that exact same month 450,000 jobs were offered on Monster alone. Our rough estimate of job openings during April is about 1.8 Million, more than enough to absorb all those workers six times.. While the layoffs were unnerving (and made other forms of recruiting take longer), it simply isn't the bad old days.

The demographics are straightforward. The only way to explain the massive wave of illegal immigration into our cities and suburbs is that there is plenty of work to go around. There are vastly more jobs in the economy. and it's getting worse.

In order to effectively manage the deployment of the workforce, we are going to have to get serious about developing an inventory management system that shifts the burden of effectiveness from "the unseen hand" (as it used to be in manufacturing) to the planners and managers who fuel our economy.

The problem is severe and getting worse. By 2005 or 2006, it will hit crisis proportions. In those times, there will be engineering, medical and other professional shortages that make the last couple of years seem like a trial run. Figuring out the details of human capital management is critical in the near term.

- John Sumser © TwoColorHat. All Rights Reserved.


Look who's gone local!

There is an established job board making new waves in the online recruiting industry. CareerWeb.com, a subsidiary of Trader Publishing Company, is poised for strong growth. Careerweb.com is the online companion to The Employment Guide, a localized print publication with a weekly circulation of 3 million papers. Using the Employment Guide as advertising, Careerweb.com has grown to a sizable site with over 100,000 job searches per day. So why use CareerWeb.com instead of Monster or Hotjobs?

CareerWeb.com is building a network of localized sites. Recruiters can post jobs locally. Similarly, job seekers will find only local jobs. The local site idea is appealing to job seekers who lack the time to search a monstrous job database, and who are not willing to relocate for a "hot" job. Jobseekers like that search results are more specific to their needs.

Check out the first three of these local sites at: OrlandoCareerWeb.com, RaleighCareerWeb.com, and ChicagoCareerWeb.com.

Your Lifeline to Medical Careers
HealthCareerWeb.com is CareerWeb.com's first industry-specific site. It is devoted to the booming Healthcare job market. If you are a recruiter for the healthcare industry, this site is an indispensable tool.

© 2013 interbiznet.
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Materials written
by John Sumser
© TwoColorHat.
All Rights Reserved.

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