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Guerrilla Recruiting (Greg-Ing) (November 19, 1999) On the web, fads shift at light speed. Today's highly trafficked web site is likely to be tomorrow's ghost town. "Did you see this one?" is as simple as a piece of email, a URL and a click. The most astonishing things get their fifteen nanoseconds of fame and disappear from the radar screen. Although we still can't figure out just exactly what a "virtual community" is, it's clear that some things happen online that couldn't happen elsewhere. We're sure that AltaVista, Yahoo, Lycos, and the like are not much more than clever desktop utilities. While we use them heavily to look things up (and like them a lot for that), we certainly don't "live" there. In the early days of personal computing, there were lots of companies who built small pieces of software that did little convenient things. The well recognized online brands are no more than that. More interesting, we think, is the movement of audience attention to "the site of the moment". Passed on in notes, on bulletin boards or in those endlessly forwarded chain emails, these glory moments are the pulse of the web. Recently we've seen several that, overnight, went from the backwater to having millions of unique visitors. Often, the instant celebrity destroys the technical infrastructure. Imagine an unanticipated million visitors on your site. It's a penalty usually paid by underprepared Superbowl advertisers. In the web world, a million people can be driven to your site in a matter of weeks through a well orchestrated whisper campaign. The current crop includes: Although the mainstream wisdom is that branding is everything (and that a solid brand ensures traffic), we're not so sure. Desktop utilities, maybe. But, the traffic will always follow what's hip and that, in the long run is the opposite of a reputable brand. We subtitled the article Greg-Ing (after our two researchers who are so good at finding these things). From time to time, we'll point out the latest Greg-Ings.
- John Sumser, © TwoColorHat. All Rights Reserved. (November 18, 1999) We'd been waiting a seeming eternity when our first PC arrived. It was the 60th unit shipped from the brand new IBM PC factory. It had 64K Memory and two floppy drives. The monitor glowed an eerie green. It always broke down. The software had bugs. It was almost 20 years ago. Fast Forward. It's late 1999 and we're beginning to publish the Internet Bugler (see today's edition). An emailed HTML daily, the Bugler covers the news that is relevant to our industry in small capsules. You'd think that 20 years would have brought technical stability. Instead, the process of gearing up for the new endeavor has included (in no particular order)
The interesting thing is how unruffled the team is as a whole. Time has not made technology easier to use. We face the exact same frustrations each day that we faced 20 years ago. It's just a part of the information age environment. It might be simple to explain. In conceptual terms, the information age is characterized by a dramatic increase in daily ambiguity. The seemingly all purpose appliances we use never are configured for the precise task that we face. Everything has to be tweaked. Part of tweaking is breaking things you didn't expect to break. In part, that explains the broad fascination most entrepreneurs in our industry have with the underlying technology. It may be that the only thing that can actually be perfected is the technology. It often feels that way. In deeply ambiguous markets, believing that you can actually be finished with a technical project gives the comfort of religious faith. Unfortunately, the technology seems to have a mind of its own. We seem to spend a fair amount of time trying to figure out how to get the hotel window open so we can throw the laptop (acting out) to its death 20 stories below. After 20 years, we almost expect things to break at the worst moment possible. So, bitching aside, the information age includes a heightened level of frustration. It's what Alvin Toffler called Future Shock over 30 years ago. As far as we can tell, no one is immune. We get some small relief knowing that Mr. Gates machines do the same thing. It's a normal part of our time.
Keep your eyes out for the interbiznet Bugler.
- John Sumser, © TwoColorHat. All Rights Reserved. (November 17, 1999) In the spirit of the emerging legal squabble, we gleefully propose that the following ten things be placed under patent. Of course, we realize that the Patent Office is terribly overworked and regularly withdraws the really silly stuff it approves. By patenting these items, we hope to provide cushy jobs for a whole bunch of our underemployed lawyer friends.
Oooooooopsie. Someone beat us to number ten.
- John Sumser, © TwoColorHat. All Rights Reserved. (November 16, 1999) Tight labor markets are old news. Their permanence is a dawning certainty. Why isn't inflation coursing through the economy? Don't higher wages drive price increases? The answer is staggeringly simple. Prices drive inflation, not wages. If the costs of labor have an effect on price increases, it is secondary. Inflation is a measure of the increasing price of things, not the wages paid to produce them. There is not an inherent relationship between the two. Since the inflation spirals of the 1980s, companies have gotten really good at managing costs. If an element of the cost of a good or service goes up, management makes the necessary investments required to keep pricing at the same (or lower) level. While tight labor markets put pressure on corporate profits, there is very little pricing flexibility in the market. Companies can not simply raise prices because their costs are going up. Global competition, the Internet (where things are 13% cheaper than other sources), relatively stable commodity prices and continuing productivity improvements take care of the inflationary pressures. Rather than price pressure, tight labor markets cause profit pressure. Profit pressure causes a profound internal examination of how money is sent and whether it is spent wisely. In other words, the marketplace isn't accepting price increases. Though the position can not be sustained permanently, as long as there is a chance that a competitor can realize productivity improvements, prices won't increase. Inflation will be deferred until we've seen a couple years of bad profit performance across the board. In intelligent companies, it always comes around to simple questions. "Is our money being spent in the smartest possible way?" "What is the smartest way to perform function X?" "Is Function X really a 'core competency' of our company, should it be?" "Are we pursuing the right objectives?" "What business are we really in?" "Can someone else do this better?" These days, the same sort of profit pressure driven rigor is starting to be applied to Recruiting. The question has changed from "How can we do this administrative chore less expensively?" to "Are we doing the right things?"; "What are the right things to do?"; and "What is our long range strategy?" The pressure from increasing costs is working its magic.
- John Sumser, © TwoColorHat. All Rights Reserved. (November 15, 1999) We've recommended the Innovator's Dilemma any number of times. Subtitled "When New Technologies Cause Great Firms To Fail", Clayton Christensen's 1997 Financial Times Book Of The Year describes the flaws in decision making that plague the shift between radically different technologies. The author asserts that the problem in adopting new approaches is that the companies that fail "do everything exactly right". Sound confusing, no? It's this simple. Solid management of a successful existing business (or Recruiting function) requires an approach to risk that makes new ideas very hard to implement. The essence of solid operational management is to protect the core intellectual and capital assets. New discontinuous approaches are impossible to manage this way. Good management is great at incremental change. When the change is as profound as a revaluing of core strategic materials and the technology that handles them, typical "business cases" don't work. Christensen offers a simple and powerful perspective on the reasons that dominant market leaders fail to stay on top. (Does anyone remember DEC, Lotus, Ashton Tate, Data General, Prime or Wang?). The new approach can not be quantified in the same way as the old approach. The risks and investments are profoundly different. We're always tickled when the old school HR Managers wake up (a little) to the new era. They behave as if the change is normal and that they just have to swallow it like the rest of the things that they have learned. Here's a version of our standard note, perhaps you can use it in your world. The problem, ultimately, is that by the time that this new technology can be managed in conventional ways, the race will be over.
It's not at all clear to us that a compelling traditional business case can be made for investments in web technology.
- John Sumser, © TwoColorHat. All Rights Reserved. Material written by John Sumser © TwoColorHat. All Rights Reserved 415.377.2255 (V) 415.380.8245 (F) Send comments to colleen@interbiznet.com |
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For Recruiters - 1999 (soon) - 1998 - 1999 Top 100 - 1997 Top 100 - 1996 Top 25 - 2000 - 1999 - 1997 - 1996 - Basic Recruiting (PDF) - Strategy (PDF) - Strategy II (PDF) (New) November 14, 1999
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