(March 10, 2004) - Yesterday, we talked about the differences in job creation processes in the information economy. Where a manufacturing economy replaces temporarily laid off people, an information and services economy invents new positions. The investment, in time, planning, energy and resources, required to create a new job in our economy is different than it was in the last century.

As we move into the future, our metrics will have to change. The BLS data, as good as it is, is rooted in manual collection techniques (as if they'd never heard of the web) and fairly flawed. Listen to the political rhetoric this year. You will hear a variety of stories about job creation all rooted in data collected by the same people. The transition from one form to the next will be rooted in the experiences we have in this recovery.

No one can really forecast the job growth prospects over the next four or five years. The charts we presented on Monday (see the archives) make it clear that history has little to offer in the way of insight. We are into something new.

The reason that Job Creation forecasts are important in our industry is simple. Growth of the industry is clearly a cyclical process that depends on a certain level of job creation. When no one is hiring, no one is buying Recruitment Advertising, ATS or Recruiting Software. As job creation heats up, our sector grows disproportionally. Having a clue about job growth creates the possibility of sound forward planning in HR and the vendor community that serves it.

We lost our crystal ball in late 1999. So, instead, we present the following 5 scenarios for the way that job growth might resume in our economy. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle of them. It's worth mentioning that these scenarios could be expanded at great length. They are conversation starters, at this point.