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(March 05, 2004) - Here are more key insights from the RAND study. (See Yesterday's article)

• The annual growth rate of the nation's workforce is expected to slow to a nearly static 0.4 percent by 2010. That's a sharp decline from the 1.1 percent annual increases seen in the 1990s and the 2.6 percent annual increases experienced during the 1970s. The slowing workforce growth rate is caused primarily by a 25 percent decline in the birthrate that followed the end of the baby boom in the mid 1960s, coupled with a trend toward earlier retirement by men. The influx of immigrant workers and women into the workforce has counteracted these forces so that the workforce has continued to expand, albeit at a slower rate.
   
• Technology will continue to shape the economy in greater ways, while the pace of those impacts will accelerate. With advances in technology and an increasingly global economy, employees will be more mobile and work in more decentralized, specialized firms with less formal and more individualized employer-employee relationships. While technology has many benefits for the workforce, such as increased productivity, it also forces workers to maintain their skills through lifelong learning. Workers with fewer skills will command much lower salaries and risk job loss to their better-trained counterparts — domestically and globally. At the same time, technology-mediated learning offers promise for worker training and retraining.
   
• Economic globalization will affect industries and segments of the workforce that in the past were relatively isolated from outside competition, boosting trade, affecting capital flows, encouraging mobile populations, and causing rapid transfer of knowledge and technologies. While some sectors might experience a net loss in jobs and market share, those consequences should be counterbalanced by gains in other sectors.

Next week, we'll take a look at the counterbalancing trend, Job Creation.

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