(November 14, 2007) Conventional wisdom
(and BLS Data) suggests that there are about 50,000,000 employment
transactions annually in the United States. That's just another way of
saying that the average job is held for about three years. The number is
different in different regions, industries, sectors of the economy and
demographics. On average, an employee holds a job for three years.
This graph (from the BLS) shows hiring
transactions (Millions) by month since 2000:
This next graph shows Separation
transactions (Millions) by month over the same time period:
And finally, the next graph shows the
number of Job Openings (Millions) over the same time period.
These three graphs, taken together, paint
a clear picture of a prototypical recession. The economy continued to
grow in the two worst years of the last down turn. It was just at a very
slow rate. The rebound affected Hiring, Separations and Openings
equally.
In the scenario under consideration, the
downturn won't be reflected in a downward employment change. Instead, it
will appear as an increase in hiring and separations.