Labor Shortage 7
(August 23, 2007)
It's impossible to discuss the North American labor shortage without
paying attention to the immigration question. The way I read the
population forecasts, the growth promised by the BLS and Department of
the Census is heavily dependent on a constant flow of immigration.
Although some might disagree, it seems to me that immigration has fueled
growth in the United States off and on over the centuries.
It's important to note that immigration was
not a factor for most of the 20th Century. When I graduated from high
school in 1972, the number of immigrants in the US was at an all time
low, 3%. In the rest of US history, the number was more lie 16% or 17%.
The hordes of baby boom children precluded the need for workers who
perform the tasks of many immigrants today.
Since 1972, the ranks of immigrants in
our country have swollen to nearly 12%.
While the number of baby boom children
doubled the population of the country overnight, the coming generations
are somewhat different. Baby boomers have reproduced at a rate that is
closer to staying even. Population growth now is an import.
This structural balance between the
offspring of the baby boom (the
loathsome Gen Y) and the immigrants required to continue population
growth is borne well within the group. Gen Y attitudes about race,
ethnicity and diversity in general are strong products of the
educational system. The problems of perception exist in the preceding
generation(s).
Meanwhile
"The
percentage of patents filed by foreigners living in the U.S. has
tripled in the past decade - yet the tight cap on permanent visas
may force entrepreneurs back home to create rival companies in
China, India and elsewhere, according to a study."
Findlaw
The dysfunctional agenda of the American
government plays sweetly for electoral dynamics and confuses the
business reality. Given the complexity of the labor shortage question
and the correspondingly deep connection to National competitiveness, it's
sad to report that little of substance is being produced by the
political process.
Unmanaged, the labor shortage will
rapidly become more than an irritant. By the time it becomes an
emergency, it will take generations to solve.
.Send To a Friend
-
Email John Sumser.
- .Permalink. - .Today's
Bugler