(August 20, 2007) Colin
Kingsbury is one of my favorite thinkers in the industry. Willing to
invest his considerable intellectual resources into the industry's
ongoing conversation, Colin keeps the edge of the discussion razor
sharp. Recently, he vented his inner Doberman:
This
line of thought was provoked by
John Sumser's Labor Shortage 3
article, which casually lobs
this assertion over the wall as
if the author was stating a law
of physics:
"As mentioned in yesterday's article,
there will be 60 Million new
workers in the USA over the
next 20 years. That's a 20%
growth in the labor supply.
Unfortunately, we need about
70% growth just to stay out
of recession."
Bullfeathers.
The
relationship between population
and economic growth is murkier
and filled with more wild-eyed
speculation than the waters of
Loch Ness. Add the words "My gut
tells me" after "unfortunately"
in the paragraph above and you
get something a lot closer to
objective reality. (RecruitingBloggers)
As everyone knows, being the COO of a
small Applicant Tracking Systems company makes you a de facto economist.
Kingsbury goes on to cite an endless procession of economies that may or
my not prove the correlation between population growth and economic
growth. Maybe he's the next Milton Friedman.
I don't know exactly what the
correlation between population growth and economic growth is. I do
know that we have had relatively uninterrupted growth in both the
population and the economy. If we keep our punitive immigration policies in place, the standstill
will come sooner. While the depth and meaning of the labor shortage is
hard to pin down, its existence is not. What I do know is that
population growth is slowing and headed for a standstill. I do know it
will have a large economic impact.
Meanwhile, we don't seem to have a
conversation about what happens when population growth slows and stops.
That a change is coming is without doubt, what it will be is subject to
speculation. That we are already in it is clear. At a minimum, there is
a dramatic mismatch between expectations for the availability of certain
skills.
In the 20th Century, growth in
population and economics were a given. The reality at the trench level
was that Baby Boomers had to compete heavily with each other. Growth
came as a result of a huge bulge, the proverbial pig in the python.
There were five workers competing for every promotion. It took a dozen
years of work for the first real management positions to be open.
Today's native born workers do not have
to compete that way. They have been deeply schooled in cooperative
problem solving and project work. They relax and make way for the more
entrepreneurial immigrants. They take management slots in their 20s
because the pieces of the labor shortage are already in play.
Colin Kingsbury does us a service by
knocking the legs out from under a simplistic argument. The trick here
is figuring out how to articulate the problem in an actionable way.
Screaming about a perilous shortage or a prolonged armed conflict for
talent simply doesn't present reasonable management information.
There is a labor shortage. It's just not
the one you think it is.
Talent is what matters most.
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