Labor Shortage 1
(August 14, 2007)
First of all, it's always been really
hard to get "good help." If you are hiring in the up part of a
business cycle, it always seems like there is a shortage. Conversely, it
the down cycle employees seem plentiful. "Good help", however, is always
scarce.All of the talk about a
more generic labor shortage (one that transcends the vagaries of the
business cycle began in the early 1990s. It was clear then, as it is
now, that the rapid population growth of the 20th century was coming to
a close. The U.S. population more than tripled during the 20th century -
a growth rate of about 1.3 percent a year - from about 76 million in
1900 to 281 million in 2000. (This is unlike most European countries,
especially Germany, Russia, Italy and Greece, whose population growth
are slowly declining.)
.
Meanwhile, the population of the planet
grew from 1 Billion to 6 Billion in slightly under 200 years.
It took 10,000 years to get to the first
Billion and 200 to add the next 5. Growth was staggering during the 20th
Century. It set very unreasonable expectations about the way things work
economically. Much of the talk about labor shortages is a way of saying
that the population structure that lies beneath economic growth is
changing rapidly.
These days,
World Population Growth rates are steadily declining. It is
reasonably clear that by mid century, the population of the plane will
stabilize at about 9 Billion people. Growth remains high in the Middle
East and Sub-Saharan Africa but in all other areas, it is rapidly
approaching Zero. Even the places with high growth have downward trends.
Most of the discussion about labor
shortages simply compares population growth with economic growth.
These forecasts assume (and this is a huge assumption) that there is a
correlation between growth in the number of workers and growth in the
economy. In order to achieve X growth, you'll need Y workers.
So, the people who are worried about
labor shortages are the ones who want the most economic growth.
As mentioned above, Europe (and all of
the top 50 industrialized countries) is suffering population decline.
They lose workers and their populations are shrinking. As immigrants are
attracted into these once vital economies, real demographic change
starts to happen.
John Sumser © TwoColorHat. All Rights Reserved.
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