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War I You
probably know that we're preparing for a presentation at the
OnRec Conference in
Chicago in early September. The conference itself promises top be very
interesting. It's a new entry on the calendar brought to you by a British crew.
It's a breath of fresh air and an opportunity to reframe many of the creaky old
ideas around our industry. Our presentation, Multigenerational Recruiting, focuses on the problems that
hiring bias causes in workplaces that contain members of the four generations
currently at work. That's forced us to dig down deep into the demographic data
and to question our fundamental assumptions. Anyone who reads this page
regularly knows that we hold the idea of demographically driven talent shortages
dear. So we're looking at our most fundamental assumption. Let's go patiently. There are two graphs in this article. The first one (Figure 1) shows the way
that population is distributed by age in lesser developed countries. The
second (Figure 2) shows age distributions in more developed countries. The
graphs are based on data from United Nations,
World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005). One (less developed
countries) resembles a pyramid. The other (more developed countries) resembles a
telephone pole. The United States, Western Europe and Japan comprise the Developed Countries.
In those places, population growth is flat. There are basically as many old
people as there are young people and middle aged people. (Collin is sort of right when he notices that the US has a fertility rate
that is ever so slightly above replacement levels. It's caused by Utah. Any
meaningful population growth in the US is a function of immigration.) The less developed countries have a pyramid shape to their age distributions.
The so-called "developed countries had age distributions shaped like pyramids
about 80 years ago. As women become more educated and participate more fully in
the workforce, the number of children per family drops and the pyramid starts to
resemble the phone pole. It's not surprising that the historical model of management featured "senior"
leadership who controlled large numbers of younger workers. It's a perfect way
to run an enterprise when older workers are in short supply and there is an
abundance of younger workers. The hierarchical (pyramid) organization has its
roots in historical demographics. We used to be a pyramid so a hierarchical
approach worked. It was a perfect world view with which to invent Social Security and
Pensions. Lots of younger workers to carry a few older retirees. Telephone pole distributions imply governance by merit and participation, a
flatter organization with work being executed by all age groups.
Much of the dust up about talent shortages has to
do with the difference between these two graphs. Many of the cues in our culture
suggest that a hierarchical approach is prudent and optimal. This is
vestigial
thinking from an earlier era. We're carrying forward the organizational and
hiring biases of our ancestors. It should be no surprise that the big consulting
firms are carrying this message. More than any other form of organization, they
are hierarchical. While we haven't even come close to answering the
core question (Is There Really a Talent Shortage or a Need for a Talent War?),
this article is a great lead in. We've tried to show that historical perception
is one of the underlying factors in the perception of shortage.
John Sumser © TwoColorHat. All Rights Reserved.
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