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(August 31, 2006) Talk to a nurse or two. The labor shortages are here. They all know that someone will buy them a house if they are willing to move. It's a source of confidence and freedom.

People in the mining and energy industries, even at the lowest, grungiest levels, are on the receiving end of new found respect. The shortage is severe, long term and fruitful for revisions to the basic employment contract.

Why is the change happening?

  • Economic growth at both a global and local scale, has always been able to rely on labor as if there were an endless supply
  • Zero Population growth is a reality. Global population growth is slowing and in a number of geographies (Russia, Japan, Europe) becoming negative growth.
  • The limits of the supply are becoming clear.
  • So is the cost of converting (training, education) the remaining surpluses of labor. They don't have the right skills.
  • There is a global skills shortage right now.
  • Unemployment figures hover near 5% (full employment) in all corners of the world (with a few developmental exceptions).
  • Competition for immigrants has begun in earnest. (India wants 'em. Australia wants 'em. More countries will follow suit and aggressively court immigrants. Kansas has reinvented homesteading.)
  • The existing workforce is aging and redefining retirement as a result.
  • Changing the definition of retirement is a one-time fix that simply moves the goal line back a few yards.

Essentially the world can already be clearly understood as a set of overlapping labor markets with relative work saturation, skills densities and demographics.

- john at johnsumser.com   Permalink . - . Today's Bugler

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