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5 Year Forecasting


(November 9, 2005) - At first glance, it seems unrealistic to ask recruiters to manage to a five year horizon line. There's barely enough time to fill the next position in the queue let alone think about the next five hundred. The battles and blows of daily combat in the trenches makes larger management questions seem superfluous. Demand  forecasting, an inherent component of most organizational disciplines (from Marketing and Production to IT planning) is a rarity within HR.

In general, organizations do not filter their strategic plans by asking the Recruiting Department "Can you get us enough people to accomplish our goals?" The assumption that there is an infinite supply of the right workers at the right price is the riskiest component of most growth plans. Because they are not asked to participate, HR managers typically ignore their responsibility to let the larger company know about the realities of the labor market. Even though it's a critical question, the fact that it is never asked appears to entitle those responsible for execution to ignore it.

Answering the simple question "How many people of what type do we need over the next five years?" is a relatively easy forecast that can be based on current staffing configurations and a growth forecast. A really good assessment would include several potential scenarios that change the mix.

The second logical question is "Can we easily acquire those workers?" involves a review of employment statistics from the areas surrounding the company's various locations and the 'production rates' of the universities that supply key worker types. Again, several scenarios ranging from the demise of a competitor to a global crisis will help shape the realities of the story.

Identifying potential problem areas and their solutions is a simple matter of comparing requirements to realities. 

A usable first draft of a 5 year plan, subject to revisions for clearer baseline data and alternative solutions should be easily completed with a couple weeks of focused attention. 

- John Sumser © TwoColorHat. All Rights Reserved.

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