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(May 20, 2004) - In its latest study, Forrester Research predicts that by the end of next year, U.S. firms will offshore more than 800,000 service jobs, 40 percent more than the firm estimated previously. Forrester's overall estimate remains the same: The firm predicts that about 3.3 million jobs will go overseas by 2015.

The San Diego Union Tribune interprets the material to mean offshoring is accelerating while the San Francisco Gate focuses on the fact that the estimate for 2006 was raised by 40%. Here is the detailed forecast:
 

	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2010	2015
Management	3.5K	15K	34K	42K	48K	67K	106K	259K
Business	30K	55K	91K	105K	120K	136K	176K	356K
Computer	102K	143K	181K	203K	228K	247K	322K	542K
Architecture	14K	27K	46K	54K	61K	70K	93K	191K
Life sciences	3K	2K	4K	5.5K	6.5K	9K	16K	39K
Legal	6K	12K	20K	23K	26K	29K	39K	79K
Art design	2.5K	4.5K	8K	9K	10K	11K	15K	30K
Sales	11K	22K	38K	47K	55K	67K	97K	218K
Office	146K	256K	410K	475K	541K	616K	815K	1.600M
TOTAL	315.3K	536.5K	832K	963.5K	1.095M	1.252M	1.679M	3.314M

The coverage of the Forrester report is highly biased by political content. Offshoring and its second cousin outsourcing are notably tough subjects in the election focused swing states (or spots like Silicon Valley where unemployment is still high).

Put in a different perspective, the Forrester prediction is that by 2015 offshoring will be nearly as big a component of the economy as the temporary-help segment was five or six years ago. Roughly 2%. Not a big deal.

From here, the offshoring/outsourcing debate has more to do with timing and skills than it has to do with job loss and creation.

The most important element of any initiative to move work "out of the house" is the contractual and managerial skill set necessary to execute the process. "Outhousing" (sorry) requires that you understand the process far more clearly than when it was done in-house. Rates, output, input, quality definitions, need levels of specification and management that are usually not required when the work is done under the local umbrella.

The discipline is called Project Management. The number of schools offering project management degrees is still quite small. The very definition of Project Management is fairly fluid. The number of HR professionals with Project Management experience is minute.

We are firm believers in the importance of accelerating the movement of work from internal to external processes. Heightened process autonomy, flatter organizations, more rapid economic adjustment and the readiness to move to the next level are all obvious benefits of process outsourcing. The limiter, as we see it, is the availability of project management skills.

John Sumser

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