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Economic Forecasts (April 14, 2004) - We received more than 20 inputs to our framework for a market sizing effort. They were uniformly well thought out suggestions that helped to clarify pieces and trends in the business. Thanks to everyone who sent us suggestions. In our evolving model of the market, we've decided to try to size both internal and external costs. Although we're not big fans of comprehensive outsourcing, we do know of cases in which it makes sense. In order to fully describe the market, we're going to try to address all of the money spent on the function rather than the traditional approach which limits the estimate to money spent directly with vendors. The resulting market sizing estimate should clearly describe the total dollars expended on Human Capital Acquisition by American Companies. (We'd be happy to work with someone who is trying to calibrate Global numbers.) We're going to leave out pension and benefits administration and payroll, for the time being. The numbers are huge. The numbers are subject to broad variation. Market growth in the vendor segments, for example, is completely driven by organizational willingness to invest and/or spend outside the established internal political structure. One look at Exult's revenue base ($480M) suggests that there are an awful lot of billions flowing through our universe. A number of the questions we've been addressing recently have a direct bearing on any attempt to measure the size of our marketplace:
In addition, we'll be developing a number of key scenarios for job growth, industry maturation and overall economic climate. Your input, as always, is welcome. John
Sumser
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