Don't know whether you saw this or not. The coupling of the push to expense
stock options with the tax changes may portend the next upheaval in the
"employment contract" and a radical redistribution of wealth through that
contract. As less stock gets distributed to the rank and file and more stock
gets distributed to execs through deferred comp and other sweeteners where the
profit impact can be levelled out, the people who get stock get more of the
company's profits, and then, as an unintended consequence of this obviously
hair-brained scheme, more money will flow away from the employee and into the
executives and large stock holders as shareholders push to reduce expenses (read
"labor costs") so that they can increase their dividend. Which of course means
lower pay for the rank and file. Or, as we might call it "Trickle-up Economics."
Good-bye middle class....
We're certain that things are changing under our feet. Wartime
footing and two plus years of forced frugality have shed all sorts of light on
the relationship between employers and employees. The swelling pressure to
change jobs is only going to be aggravated by perceived imbalances in wealth
distribution.
Meanwhile, the age at
which young people join the workforce has been steadily rising, from 21 to 23 in
the 1990s alone. Combined with a generational distaste for large organizational life (these kids all watched their fathers cry after the
layoff), we wonder just how long the Recruiting is going to
seem easy.
In an interesting and related trend, job hunters are starting to
look at other websites before they approach the corporate offering. They do
their research on sites ranging from Hoovers, Vault and Wet Feet to f****d
Company. The stock message boards are perused on Yahoo and other investment
sites to glean a sense of "what it's like in there".
Our sense is that Recruiting is starting to get hard again. The
equations we solve in this next round will be very different than the last time.
We'll be deeply involved in proving that this is a good place to work (in spite
of what you've read on the Internet).
Getting the message right and understanding what other people
are saying is more critical than ever. Candidates have increasingly good
reasons, environmental and local, for distrusting what they hear. With the
Internet available to validate Recruiting claims, the game is getting
tougher.
- John Sumser, © TwoColorHat. All Rights Reserved.