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It is better
to not be on
the web than
to be on and
not know why
John Sumser
Reality
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Attrition Bomb
(January 03, 2003) - We've
always enjoyed the prediction time of year. Chastened after a number of hopeful
New Years, we're going to stick to a couple of things we're certain about this
year. Mostly, things are going to get more complicated and detail oriented.
- This will be the year
Hire.com comes of age. After all of our cheerleading, others
are taking real notice of the firm's deep and differentiating
accomplishments. The Hire.com offering is a real alternative that gives
recruiters a range of capabilities available nowhere else.
- Our customers will
experience a problem that no one is planning to meet (as usual). Years of
fear and layoffs have created a ticking 'attrition bomb' that will go off as
the economy inches its way into recovery.
- The industry, as a whole,
will experience stronger than anticipated growth driven by the attrition
bomb. There will be surprise winners and losers as a result.
- The very same customers
who complained about getting 'too many resumes' last year will be scrambling
to get more this year.
- Employment Branding will
evolve into a discipline that has a less scary name. The attrition problem
will make systems that communicate with current, potential and former
employees all the more attractive.
- John Sumser will finally
launch the business everyone's been wondering about for the last ten years.
- Arbiters of the
mid-ground will emerge to manage the performance of the job boards. Measured
performance effectiveness and customer by customer accountability will be
the path to increased revenue for the boards.
- The staffing industry
will perk up. Now that the only ones left are the pros with staying power, a
broad range of new initiatives will emerge locking customers into
arrangements with new sources.
- The massive turnover in
the HR industry (some say 70%) will create opportunities as the surprising
workload from the 'attrition bomb' creates new HR positions faster than they
can be filled externally. We'll see an infusion of former marketing types.
- As we begin to digest the
real attrition in HR, someone will start to wonder just exactly who is
really on all of those huge spam mailing lists.
- Once and for all, there
will be a mass recognition of the fact that HR is about communications and
that the industry provides communications tools, not Tracking Systems.
Tracking Systems companies will be scrambling to change their collateral
materials.
- HotJobs will discover
that customers really do want the candidates that make up Yahoo's base of
users. It turns out that this is the same crowd that will be in short
supply. A campaign to enroll Yahoo users, built on a 'aren't you tired of
your job' campaign, will boost the Yahoo product into a close second place.
- The newspapers will start
to realize that there never really was a need for a centralized national
operation. As local customers become sophisticated enough to want local
results, the stream of discounted traffic they are giving to CareerBuilder
will become its Achilles heel.
- Economic
stimulation from the Bushes will have slower than expected results. If
there's a war, assume that we're still in 2002 until it's over
The surprising news about
2002 is that it was a tremendous year for business formation in our industry.
It's a great time to get started and the early phases of the attrition bomb will
be about people who just decide it's the right time to get started.
- John
Sumser
Order Your Copy of the 2002 Electronic Recruiting Index
Review the Table of Contents.
Call Colleen at 415-377-2255 to place an order and mention the Newsletter to receive a $200 Discount. You can also email Colleen, if you prefer.
Limited Offer. Call today.
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Copyright © 2013 interbiznet. All rights reserved.
Materials written by John Sumser © TwoColorHat. All Rights Reserved. Mill Valley, CA 94941 415.377.2255
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