
Technology Devolves
(November 7, 2002) -
The first word processors lived on specialized (Wang) machines that were so
expensive that only secretaries had them. Remember secretaries? (They were
underpaid female executives who actually ran everything.) It took nearly a
decade for the effects of Moore's law (computer capacity doubles every eighteen
months) to work to the point that word processors were on everyone's desktop and
the secretaries were gone. By 1993, Microsoft Word 6 had achieved nearly perfect
penetration of the white collar market.
That's how technology works. The stuff at the
high end always flows downhill and ends up on the desktop. The relentless
influence of Moore's law keeps increasing the desktop computer's power making
ever larger things possible. What only big players could do yesterday, little
players accomplish easily today.
The slowest part of the equation is the capacity
of users to absorb the new work.Each increment of technical improvement expands
the power and control of individual employees. As a result, management is often
the largest obstacle to technical devolution. The situation is always compounded
by the fact that the new work has never been done by the current management
team. Therefore, management is always in a battle to retain its understanding of
what is actually happening on the work floor.
That's the fundamental framework for thinking
about the next steps in the technical development of Online Recruiting. As we
mentioned yesterday, the fact that the current state of the industry is a
primitive reframing of the old fashioned classified ads simply means that we're
ready for the next stage. The big always prepare the way for the small.
This means that job boards, as we've come to
know them, are more temporary than the executive search industry that they
killed on their way to our wallets. By acquiring data faster than traditional
methods, the job boards disintermediated all but the most effective third party
firms. (Like secretaries, the change was not total, just strategic.)
It won't be long until Yahoo figures out that
the personals are closer to recruiting than a resume exchange. Real recruiting,
as Hire.com understands, is about relationships, enthusiasm and commitment, not
the flow of data into lists. Turning the Internet, which is a communications
toolset, into a powerful recruiting weapon is simply a question of developing
control at the desktop level and the corresponding management understanding.
There is a huge and rapidly opening market for
next generation of recruiting, training and services. Customers are beginning to
understand their real needs (not better data, better tools). Soon, the vendors
will be providing them.
-John
Sumser