
5 Year Plans
(September 3, 2002) - At
first glance, it seems unrealistic to ask recruiters to manage to a five year
horizon line. There's barely enough time to fill the next position in the queue
let alone think about the next five hundred. The battles and blows of daily
combat in the trenches makes larger management questions seem superfluous.
Demand forecasting, an inherent component of most organizational
disciplines (from Marketing and Production to IT planning) is a rarity within
HR.
Part of it really is a software problem.
Workforce analytics products, pioneered by Icarian
and an increasing part of many offerings, take such an extremely comprehensive
view of the problem that they neglect to fix what's possible. Ultimately, it
will be important to understand the nuances of demand and performance (How many
of the new engineers have 2 years of Spanish? Of the current engineers with Spanish
skills, how well are we utilizing them? What percentage of our Human Capital are
we really utilizing?) By focusing on big solutions to previously unsolvable
problems, vendors are neglecting to move the ball forward incrementally. Current
systems focus the work on the task at hand without a meaningful picture of
strategy.
In general, organizations do not filter their
strategic plans by asking the Recruiting Department "Can you get us enough
people to accomplish our goals?" The assumption that there is an infinite
supply of the right workers at the right price is the riskiest component of most
growth plans. Because they are not asked to participate, HR managers typically
ignore their responsibility to let the larger company know about the realities
of the labor market. Even though it's a critical question, the fact that it is
never asked appears to entitle those responsible for execution to ignore it.
Answering the simple question "How many
people of what type do we need over the next five years?" is a relatively
easy forecast that can be based on current staffing configurations and a growth
forecast. A really good assessment would include several potential scenarios
that change the mix.
The second logical question is "Can we
easily acquire those workers?" involves a review of employment statistics
from the areas surrounding the company's various locations and the 'production
rates' of the universities that supply key worker types. Again, several
scenarios ranging from the demise of a competitor to a global crisis will help
shape the realities of the story.
Identifying potential problem areas and their
solutions is a simple matter of comparing requirements to realities.
A usable first draft of a 5 year plan, subject
to revisions for clearer baseline data and alternative solutions should be
easily completed with a couple weeks of focused attention.
It's surprising that this functionality is not
embedded in every workforce management system.
- John Sumser © TwoColorHat. All Rights Reserved.