Confirmation
(March 01, 2002) -
We've seen our commentary on the newspaper industry's investment behavior and
other aspects of the defensive maneuvers written off as "piffle". We
think it's pretty standard for a siege mentality universe to dismiss the message
and the messenger. What's surprising (and we guess many people aren't getting
out to see these things) is that the industry itself agrees with us.
The worst part of changing a culture is figuring
out how to reach through the omniscient middle managers. These are the people
who make the mistakes, really. The very senior leadership gets it. Quite often
the troops get it. It's the guys in the middle who are hanging on to their jobs
for dear life who need to keep their blinders on. "If I ignore it, it might
go away."
At the recent Interactive Newspapers Conference
& Trade Show, held in San Jose each year, futurist Paul SAffo told the
audience:
The newspaper industry failed miserably in its
first go-round with the Internet -- indeed, newspaper executives'
performance in figuring out a credible, profitable model to participate in
the Internet boom was "criminal." "There's a whole generation
of newspaper executives who should be fired," said Saffo, because they
could only see new media through an old-media lens.
We (in developed countries) are well on the
road to the point where digital consumption of information will be greater
than consumption of printed information. No, paper isn't going anywhere, but
it will soon be overtaken. (As Saffo put it, horses didn't disappear when
automobiles were introduced, but they weren't used as much for
transportation.)
The newspaper industry, in particular, is well
positioned to take advantage of the next wave. But it will require taking
risks and striking out to find what's on the horizon -- and embracing
it.
It wasn't just a futurist, the Conference focused
on the failure of the old players to understand the new media as it is. The sad
part of the story is that the industry's cash cow never even came up.
Recruitment Advertising, rapidly being destroyed as a central profit maker is
still seen as ancillary to the business by its internal players.
Again, we'd suggest that any newspaper executive
who can make a pilgrimage to the Monster headquarters. There, you can see the
future even if you can't understand it.
- John Sumser
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