One Last Bash
(February 26, 2002) -
In the Human Capital sector, market evolution
is typically slow. Phenomenon like the rapid adoption of online Recruitment
Advertising (which took about six years for initial penetration) are rarer than
the slow and incremental evolution that most innovations face in market
adoption. Investment in the industry, for fast paced winners, has a five or six
year timeline. Many of the companies that will produce the most significant
returns to investors do it on a decade-long time line.
That means that patient investors with a
long-term commitment are required to build the profitable structures of the next
generation. Holding non-liquid investments over a ten-year period is not an
investment approach that many institutions are interested in pursuing. In
general, the stock market produces returns on a quarter to quarter basis and
that is 40 times faster than we are talking about here.
However, there is a well-established and growing
market that has been inadequately protected by the incumbents who currently own
the business. Historically, their efforts to control their eroding market
position have bequeathed significant benefits on new entrants. One can nearly
navigate a new venture by simply not doing what the incumbents do.
Of course, we are talking about the
newspapers. The most significant opportunity comes by understanding exactly what
the newspapers are missing. Their readers (users) have become (and/or are
becoming) proactive owners of their own
destinies. By taking the time and patience to understand what those readers
actually want, an extraordinary harvest is possible.
- John Sumser
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