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    One Last Bash


    (February 26, 2002) - In the Human Capital sector, market evolution is typically slow. Phenomenon like the rapid adoption of online Recruitment Advertising (which took about six years for initial penetration) are rarer than the slow and incremental evolution that most innovations face in market adoption. Investment in the industry, for fast paced winners, has a five or six year timeline. Many of the companies that will produce the most significant returns to investors do it on a decade-long time line.

    That means that patient investors with a long-term commitment are required to build the profitable structures of the next generation. Holding non-liquid investments over a ten-year period is not an investment approach that many institutions are interested in pursuing. In general, the stock market produces returns on a quarter to quarter basis and that is 40 times faster than we are talking about here.

    However, there is a well-established and growing market that has been inadequately protected by the incumbents who currently own the business. Historically, their efforts to control their eroding market position have bequeathed significant benefits on new entrants. One can nearly navigate a new venture by simply not doing what the incumbents do.

      Of course, we are talking about the newspapers. The most significant opportunity comes by understanding exactly what the newspapers are missing. Their readers (users) have become (and/or are becoming) proactive owners of their own destinies. By taking the time and patience to understand what those readers actually want, an extraordinary harvest is possible.

    - John Sumser

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