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There really ought to be an institution that
serves recruiters as the winds of change rearrange the focus of the message they
deliver to prospective employees. We wonder who is going to take the
responsibility for helping current professionals explain this new dimension of
concern to their prospects. It's not like it's directly related to what was
being explained last week. Sooner or later, professional education will have to
become a component of the Human Capital Acquisition industry. After all, 67% of
all dollars spent by organizations on human resources are devoted to the
components of this task. We'll get serious about the need for an institution in
later articles. The other issue raised by the Enron mess
involves the characterization of future transactions. We were struck by an interview
with Peter Doyle, the co-founder of the Kinetics Internet fund (the closest
thing to a success story in last year's rout of Internet holdings). Doyle said: Valuations for these companies are based on pro
forma numbers that are pure science fiction. And unfortunately, it's
undermining the whole capital markets, and it's having impacts on the risk
premiums, which are going up for all companies, even those that are doing
things legitimately and are trying to do things conservatively in their
accounting. He was talking about the fact that out-year
forecasts, which are widely used as a means of valuing a particular company, are
often based on little more than science fiction. No checks are made to validate
the possibility of the market or the company's ability to field a workforce
large enough to handle the workload associated with the growth. Any more, it is frighteningly possible to
determine exactly how many of which type of professional are going to be able
within commuting distance of a particular plant. Although it may be a royal
PITA, it is also now possible to precisely forecast the demand for those professionals
(with little more than SEC filings). That means that it is not only possible but
increasingly likely that a measure of a company's success likelihood will be a
part of our universe. The risk associated with acquiring a sufficient workforce
is a measurable number that will become a part of accounting audits. Recruiting
tactics that include the development of real talent pools and other outreach
will be the obvious risk mitigators. If you do not have enough people and a clear
method for acquiring the additional bodies you need, your financial forecasts
are bogus.
- John Sumser
Talent is what matters most.
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