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Population

January 29, 2002) - The RAND Corporation is a famous think tank that supports (for the most part) the American Defense Establishment. Known for their ability to effectively see the future and forecast critical changes and trends, the organization is respected far and wide. Typically, the results of their research have beyond the reach of most. Their website is a gem of research offered online.

A Demographic Perspective on Our Nation's Future describes the causes and consequences of population dynamics that will result in the impending labor shortage while World Population Shifts: Boom or Doom? offers the pros and cons of our future. It's going to be intereting.

The only way that America's population grows is through immigration. If we halted the flow of imigrants onto our soil tommorrow, our population would begin to decline immediately. We simply do not make as many babies as we have folks dying. That's the simple way of saying that our natural birth rates are below replacement levels.

As a result, the population is growing older each year. The results include massive cultural shifts as we begin to assume that the normal person is 45. Fewer younger people enter the work force. The population itself is becoming a racial mosaic with no particular subset enjoying a majority (although, quite soon, there will be as many Hispanics as Caucasians.

The managerial challenges we face go far beyond recruiting. In general, although there is evidence that the work ethic is stronger, immigrants are less educated and will require remedial cultural and technical training if they are introduced into the workforce en masse.

Although the "War For Talent" is fading as a buzzword. Our march towards massive shortages is inexorable. These two reports will help you make your case as you try to argue for resources to solve a pending problem.

- John Sumser

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