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The first moments of the web's appearance were
manifested by the user to user network delivery of a copy of XMosaic, the first
iteration of a web browser. One of the employees of the organization we ran
raced into our offices, breathless. "Look at this! We can have a home page
on the Internet. Let's get started." If memory serves, that was the third
or fourth copy of the browser in the United States. The home page looked funny
on the little Apple Laptop...screens were black and white, for the most part, in
those days. After 30 seconds of deep reflection, we said "Stop wasting your
time on this crap and get back to work." It wasn't too much later that interbiznet began
its life as one of the first fifty or so sites. The initial reaction was the
thing. The only solace we take is the fact that we sat with many of the so
called luminaries of the web at the time and their reactions were similar to
ours. Over the early years, we piled endless
Powerpoints through endless executive offices trying to explain the utility of
the web to blankly staring audiences. When there was a glimmer of understanding,
it was generally from tech-savvy executives running client-server
implementations. They said, to a person, "Oh, we're already doing
that." They simply didn't understand that the shift
involved a major change in the politics of the user. Instead, they thought that
the web was a way to do what they were already doing. The big risk, when technology shifts, is that you
miss it because it looks too simple or that your blinders are on so tight that
you can not see beyond the possibilities you already imagine. Moore's Law, which suggests that data density
doubles every 18 months while the price falls by 50%, rules the evolution of
computing technology. The easiest way to explain the current impact of the
principle is to point out what everyone knows. The Dell Systems being advertised
on CNN for $899 are typically 3 times more powerful and one-third the price of
the system on your desktop. Every time that the computing supply gets out of
whack (and ready for a major breakthrough) home computers exceed the
capabilities of the tools in the office. We're there again. In the first Generation, it was the shift from
dumb terminals to desktop capacity including the explosion of desktop
publishing. The second generation was client server and the final elimination of
the secretary. The third generation was the web. We're teetering on the brink of
the fourth generation (Gen4). Like all of the others, it looks ubtle at first
and is easy to dimiss, particularly if you are in a universe dominated by a web
view of the universe. On the web, people "go" to databases
for transactions. They "go" to have 'personalized' experiences. They
go. We're having a hard time getting the articulation
of Gen4 simple enough. It seems, though, that Gen4 is about interactions between
users. My database talks to your database. The early adopters, flush with the business to
business implications of XML, think its a way to consolidate centralized
databases. You'd expect that. We think the real, near term revolution involves
the use of XML at the desktop. It's working in the Weblog
world already (and most of these moves forward start in publishing). The best
way to understand, for now, the implications of Gen4 is to imagine that a web
page can offer multiple elements of a database's functionality. In Weblogs, each
news item can be individually syndicated and monitored because of its XML
tagging. We're beginning to consider a world in which the value comes, not from
having the largest resume database but from knowing where the resumes are. It
comes from delivering value to a user's desktop through interactions with her
desktop database.
- John
Sumser
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