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More To Come (September 25, 2001) There will be more layoffs in the sectors of the economy where staffing is directly related to demand (like transportation, hospitality and so on). Before all is said and done, we expect a dislocation of at least 250,000 workers this fall. It will have a noticeable impact on unemployment rates. It won't change the fundamentals. There are far more than 250,000 equivalent service jobs posted on various job boards around the net. We imagine that most of the displaced people will end up in jobs that strengthen regional economies, from National hotels to local restaurants and so on. It will be, in the very short term, a real windfall for local levels of service. Replacing those who are shifted out of the National businesses will be a far greater problem as strength returns to Airlines, Hotels and Travel services. Here's to hoping that the layoffs are conducted in ways that allow communications with the displaced workers over the readjustment period. It is very clear that, at some point in the future, the laid-off will become the desperately sought. There was never a better opportunity for the installation of an alumni system. The fundamentals are interesting, indeed. While our temporary economic problems may be exacerbated by recent events, the underlying demographic trends are as resilient as water flowing downhill. If anything, tightened border scrutiny, a necessary part of our defense, will further slow the growth of the workforce resulting in shortages even sooner than our dire predictions. There is no escaping the fact that the underside of an aging population is worker shortages. From here, it looks like recent event will accelerate the impact of these shortages in the medium term. This makes it essential that companies with the desire to endure over the next decade take the time to look closely at their ability to attract and retain membership in their pools of candidates. The key to the development of a predictable labor supply will be having pre-existing relationships that can be easily converted into new-hires. - John Sumser © TwoColorHat. All Rights Reserved.
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All Rights Reserved. Materials written by John Sumser © TwoColorHat. All Rights Reserved.
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