Reveille and Hyperbole
2006: A Ticking Time Bomb? 3-2-1 Blastoff
Let the celebration begin. Hayley Mills, Sally Fields and Patty Duke turn 60 this year. So do Presidents Bush and Clinton, Donald Trump and Cher. Joining them will be the front edge of millions of aging Boomers who are anticipated to retire or change careers in unprecedented numbers. This is the leading edge of a series of events and workforce trends that author-workforce expert Ira S. Wolfe has called The Perfect Labor Storm.

Wolfe, founder and president of Success Performance Solutions, recalls six years ago when he first warned about skilled worker shortages. "I received many comments like "interesting" and "thought-provoking," he recalls, "but many executives and business owners chose to ignore the warning." Today, stories about skilled worker shortages is front-page news and time to fill open critical positions is growing longer and longer. "The Perfect Labor Storm," Wolfe contends, "is no longer just a forecast for the future but an imminent threat for the present."

Wolfe offers highlights of a few stories he believes will dominate the news in 2006 and beyond.

• A Shrinking Workforce
  The number of U.S. workers between ages 55 and 64 will grow 51 percent to 25 million by 2012, meaning the fastest-growing portion of the work force is the one at most risk of retiring soon. At the same time, the number of workers between ages 35 and 44 is expected to shrink by 7 percent.
• New Skills Required
  While many workers continue to use skills learned in an Industrial age, consumer demands have changed. Jobs now require skills for service and knowledge, not manual labor. In 1955, 40.5 percent of the U.S. workforce was engaging in manufacturing, construction, and mining. By the end of 2005, those industries employed only 15.8 percent of the workforce. Service-producing industry sent paychecks to 41.8 percent of workers.
• Is Education The Answer?
  Many point to better education as the solution. But education has its own problems. Today's workforce is the most educated in the world. That is all about to change. U.S. high school students are getting their lunches eaten when it comes to math and science scores compared to the most advanced economies of Europe and Asia.
• No Industry Left Behind
  Nearly every industry is predicting severe employee shortages, including manufacturing. Despite over 2 million layoffs, 500,000 vacancies exist for manufacturing jobs. Why? The available worker, including the employed, doesn't have the right skills. The same forecast holds for healthcare, construction and technology.
• Ticking time bombs: health care and pensions
  For the first time in history retirees are living longer after retirements then they worked for the company or paid into social security. Many organizations including the government are facing huge funding shortfalls. The rules about retirement haven't kept up with life expectancy. As a result, public pension and health benefits for the elderly are on track to double while at the same time the old-age dependency ratio (nonworking older person per workers) will double.
• Living Longer Costs Money
  The health care consumption level of a 70-year-old far exceeds the consumption level of a 30 year old. By one estimate, the average elderly American consumes 37 percent more than the average worker. As a result, Americans will be expected to pay more for their own health care and more for their dependents through more out-of-pocket payments and increased tax bills required to fund public supported health care.
• Consumer-Driven Health Care
  Shifting responsibility for health care to the consumer may be the right thing to do but employers and the government are asking a lot when lay people are expected to shop for a provider, decide when to seek care, wait weeks or months to get an appointment, juggle the appointment time with the demands of working, and navigate a complex system of bills and payments. At least 77 million people in the U.S. -- or two out of every five adults -- have a hard time paying for medical bills or have accrued debt as a result of health care expenses. Two-thirds of people, which includes many workers, with a medical bill or debt trouble go without care because of cost. Meanwhile their health deteriorates. Minor ailments become severe and chronic conditions evolve into acute emergencies.
• More than Pocket Change
  Losing experienced workers is only part of the problem. Replacing them comes with a high cost. At a time when the cost of doing business is rising and profits are squeezed, the average "cost-to-hire" and "time-to-fill" in 2005 was $7,123 and 37 days, respectively. The number goes up exponentially when recruiting and hiring knowledge workers. (Source: 2005 SHRM Human Capital Benchmarking Study)

Wolfe says, "this combination of an aging population and a shrinking workforce will increase the pressure to reduce pensions, delay retirement, increase outsourcing and open up immigration."

For more workforce facts and demographic trends, visit http://www.perfectlaborstorm.com.

Deck Chairs
Time Plus Payroll Services announced that payroll industry veteran Neil Manna has joined the company as CFO.

You Should Know
Global:

• Too often the staffing function is still missing in action  Listening to my son's account of his on-the-ground weekend exercises the other day (he's a weekend warrior in the national guard and, having just read an email from one of my cousin's sons in the 101st (and now in Iraq after two years in Afghanistan), I had this thought about Staffing leaders and the so-called war for talent- with appologies to the folks who are the real warriors.
  
  If talent acquisition is to be the linchpin for how HR finds, develops and retains employees that drive their firm's performance, then Staffing is truly the lead element in the war for talent and, for most, it is unequipped to do its job, poorly trained to operate as a team and poorly organized for the mission at hand. (CareerXRoads)
   
• What Lies Ahead for the U.S. Economy in 2006  The economic growth that the United States enjoyed in 2005 will continue in 2006, as stronger business investment begins to pick up the slack on the part of consumers who will curtail the white-hot spending that has been a key factor in propelling the economy, according to Wharton faculty members and private-sector economists. In addition, oil prices will remain high in 2006, but not much higher than they are now, the residential real estate boom will cool and American workers will be forced to deal with a volatile employment market, these experts say. (Wharton)
  
  Google PR algorithm in need of tweaking: Google has finally commented on what it sees as some misconceptions about its recently announced partnership with AOL (see "Hello, facilities? Ballmer needs a new office chair. Yes, again."). According to the company, it is not, as executives close to the companies told The New York Times, doing SEO for AOL (see "Google to AOL: Optimize Your Site & Achieve Higher Listings on Top Search Engines!"). "Biased results? No way," (GMSV)
   
• Stock Images. Be sure to checkout team work, partnership and leadership. Welcome to the definitive stock image library for business imagery. NWYH Stock contains over 50 hi resolution images available to download for free. Our fully searchable database allows you to find imagery to match any of today¹s key management buzzwords. We believe it to be fully comprehensive and unique in its no nonsense portrayal of daily office life. (NWYH Stock Images)
   
• Line Manager's Candidate Assessment Blindspot  Great book The Tipping Point. One I would recommend.  The author, Malcolm Gladwell, talks about a tendency we all have called the Fundamental Attribution Error (FAE). He did not do the research on this issue but his description is excellent.  The FAE is a blindspot we all have when we process information. What happens is that when we interpret other people's behaviour we overestimate the influence of the other person's character, and underestimate the influence of their situation and context. (Talent In China)
   
• Five Years Forward  What will the next five years bring?  The trend in the Fortune 500 to an entirely digital recruiting process is evident when one considers the number of companies for which the online channel is now the only way to express interest in a job position posted to the careers website.  The goal of digital recruiting is to transform the recruiting process into a paperless, consistent business process.  (Talent In China)
   
• Throw in a new Aeron for Ballmer and we've got a deal: They were fun while they lasted, but there will be no more chair tossing tantrums in Redmond. The five-month-long pitched battle between Microsoft and Google over Dr. Kai-Fu Lee, a former Microsoft executive who left the company to work for Google, is finally over (see "Feeling a little like Borland these days, are we, Microsoft?" "And, if you're beaten by Microsoft thugs, our generous health plan will cover you," "So I guess you'd be one of those absent-minded geniuses, eh, Kai-Fu?" "Position requires knowledge of strong-arm tactics and a familiarity with the Windows OS," and "Quoted"). In a brief statement released last week, Microsoft said the companies had reached a "private agreement that resolves all issues to their mutual satisfaction." Terms of the settlement weren't disclosed, but it likely hinged on a September court ruling that forbade Lee from hiring anyone away from Microsoft, using confidential information he learned during his employment there, or working for Google on products or services related to search and speech technologies (see "Kai-Fu Lee will run for 30 days in limited evaluation mode. Once the evaluation period ends you must purchase a registration code from Microsoft.") And some speculate it may have included a bit of a pay-out from Google. (SV.com)

US:

• Older Workers Seek Flexibility, Autonomy, Learning  When it comes to integrating older employees into the workforce, the Cendant Car Rental Group has the right idea.  As it begins to establish neighborhood rental centers--those not located at airports--the owner of the Avis and Budget brands is looking for workers 50 years or older to run the businesses. "They're going to bring all of what makes a 50-plus worker valuable in terms of relationships, knowledge and maturity" that it takes to build a business, says Mark Servodidio, executive vice president of human resources at Cendant. (Workforce)

Coming Soon

Jupiter Webinar Automated Bid Management: Tools for Search Marketers January 10, 2006 2:00pm EST, 11:00am PST Free More Info	The HR Directors Summit 2006 30-31 January 2006 Radisson Edwardian Heathrow
OnRec presents: Digital Content Forum Feb 02, 2006 Cafe Royal, London More Info £175 plus VAT Register	HR Metrics - 2006 Summit Dallas, TX February 23, 2006 $475 Register
OnRec Awards 2006 March 8, 2006 Cafe Royal, Picadilly, London £95 pounds + V.A.T Nominate A Firm or A Person More Info	ER Expo 2006 Spring San Diego, CA March 14-16, 2006 $1395 More Info Register
Staffing Industry Executive Forum March 13 - 16 The Beverly Hilton Beverly Hills, CA Brochure (516K) $1,695 Register	2006 SWPP Annual Conference, The Summit for Workforce Management Excellence Wednesday, March 15-Friday, March 17 Opryland Hotel Nashville, Tennessee $1,190 Register
37th Annual Employment Management Conference March 30-April 1, 2006 Manchester Grand Hyatt San Diego, California $1,205 Register
Human Capital Summit Conference April 5-7, 2006, Chicago Marriott Downtown Hotel Register $1195	IHRIM: HRM Strategies 2006 April 9-12, 2006 Washington, DC $1,265 More Info Register
SHRM's 2006 Annual Conference & Exposition June 25-28 Washington, D.C. $1,350 Read more Register	2006 EREC 21-22 June 2006 ExCel London, UK Register
2006 Strategic HR Conference October 4-6, 2006 Westin Kierland Resort Phoenix, Arizona	Human Resource Executive's 9th Annual HR Technology® Conference & Exposition Oct. 4-6, 2006 Navy Pier in Chicago, IL Call For Proposals
2006 SHRM Workplace Diversity Conference October 16-18, 2006 Century Plaza Hotel and Spa Los Angeles, California	HR.com's Employers of Excellence Conference 2006 October 25 - 27, 2006 Red Rock Resort Las Vegas, Nevada Register

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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